A look at whether the world is on track to meet the climate targets agreed more than five years ago.
Source: Arnaud Bouissou; UN Secretary General and others celebrating the signing of the Paris Agreement at COP21
It has been five years since the monumental Paris agreement was signed by 195 states across the globe. The pact was seen as a significant global event, and in many ways, the first major acknowledgment of the climate crisis. The occasion showed that world leaders were aware of the future threat posed by this crisis and were prepared to put aside their political and economic agendas to pursue a moral duty of care towards our home.
This, however, is far from the truth. Promises are never guaranteed, and many consider this the Paris Accord's biggest flaw. Countries are not actually required to deliver on their initial promises and will not face any repercussions for failing to meet their targets. A "problem-for-the-next-generation" attitude is threatening to undo all the aims that were set out. The withdrawal of the United States was also a major setback, a country that was seen as the figurehead in the agreement, due to being the world's "emissions powerhouse".
Recently, the UN has warned that most countries in the world are not doing enough to combat the effects of extreme weather. Funding is nowhere near the levels that are required to avert climate disaster. The biggest drivers of emissions, the US and China, have not slowed down their carbon outputs and are not expected to meet the 2℃ limit. On top of this, many developing countries in Africa are unlikely to adopt clean energy as their main source of power output, as they seek economic growth and prosperity over the next few decades. India, the world's third biggest emitter, is one of the few countries that are on track to achieve the 2℃ limit, but their efforts can easily be knocked off track if economic recovery is prioritised after the COVID-19 pandemic passes. Russia, another big source of CO2, is doing very little to cut its reliance on fossil fuels and only just remains on course to meet the Paris targets. In addition, Saudi Arabia, a nation heavily reliant on oil, is one of the worser countries in terms of climate action. Since oil output forms a large percentage of the country’s economy, it is very unlikely that the country will meet any targets. Saudi Arabia will need a complete overhaul of its economic structure if it wants to transition to any form of clean energy plan.
Each country’s share of CO2 emissions.
(Source: Union of Concerned Scientists, Earth Systems Science Data 11, 2019)
The past 5 years have shown no reason for optimism. 2020 has turned out to be one of the warmest years of the decade. Forest fires and record temperatures in Siberia have added to the doom and gloom. The economic devastation caused by the pandemic has also distracted people from the biggest threat to humanity. There is, however, a tiny glimmer of hope. 2020 was also the year that China announced its plans to achieve carbon neutrality by the year 2060. While it is far from the ideal aim, it will be welcomed by many, since the country has had a poor record when it comes to climate action. This year also saw the start of a new presidential era in America. President-elect, Joe Biden, promised to re-join the Paris agreement and has announced a $2tn clean energy revolution. While most countries are still well below their initial pledge, there are signs that the biggest culprits are beginning to do their part in slowing down the eventual crisis, which will hopefully avert the worst consequences. It is important that these biggest emitters provide an example for less economically developed countries to follow.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Abdul Hamid is a 3rd year Physics student and is interested in exploring a career in the nuclear energy industry, a source of energy that could help battle the effects of fossil fuel emissions. Abdul is also interested in the promising research being undertaken to perfect the nuclear fusion process, a possible game-changer in the future of energy.
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